Saturday 27th July’s Racecards for UK & Ireland Leave a comment

Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad. Willie is 0/14 in this race but went very close last year when Saint Sam was second (Ciel De Neige 3rd in 2019, too). Of that last named cohort, maybe Teahupoo has advanced his claims since the turn of the year. He’s still yet to race in Grade 1 company, but has been dominant in winning a brace of Grade 3’s either side of a Grade 2 score. He’s looked like there is plenty more to come but his potential is more than factored into quotes of 8/1 especially when noting his lack of form on a sound surface (for which, granted, he could improve, though I don’t expect him to). Trained by Colin Tizzard, his sole defeat in four progressive chase starts was when well seen off, but still best of the rest, behind Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.

Royal Ascot 2024 day one review & replays Rosallion wins St James’s Palace Stakes

Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events – say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time – we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.

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So, during this short hiatus from decent turf action, I thought it might be worth looking at a couple of the more interesting ‘side bets’. In short, stuff could – and at some point probably will – happen. But I’d be hard pushed to bet against any of this quintet in the win slot if they trotted round at the start. If Energumene and Allmankind lock horns on the speed, they may both pay for those exertions in the manner that Saint Calvados and Petit Mouchoir did in the 2018 renewal of this race, setting things up for a 14-length rout for Footpad.

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While we aren’t going to head into too much detail here, The Statistical Lay, Back the Beaten Favourite, and The Dutching System all have armies of followers. Betfair has a similar price commitment to Paddy Power in terms of odds, and they also put their money where their mouth is in terms of bonuses and other promos for racing fans. Still, there are plenty of race meets available at the big-name bookmakers for those intent on live streaming their bets. The quality of the streams available is strong at the top end, although as always, it would be nice if more races were available on live stream – even though the likes of Betfair pledge to stream all UK and Irish races through their platform. That said, there are still some strategies that can be deployed for leveraging opportunities in-play, though you would be advised to live stream the race while you’re betting on any in-play event. Paddy Power and Betfair are ahead of the pack here with their range of in-play options, which are handily accessible so you make quick decisions after the race has got underway.

Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30

I’d rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I’m swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well. A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since.

Cheltenham preview update

Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.

Horse racing tips: This 16-1 chance won this race a year ago and returns from just a 3lb higher mark

He ran a solid seventh in this contest last term, challenging down the inner from an unpromising position; keeping-on well enough behind some talented individuals. Dropped 2lb in the weights this time around, there could be some each-way mileage in his big price, returning to this circuit. A race which is likely to run at a furious gallop, with number contenders for this valuable prize for the Hunter Chasers and amateur jockeys. It is run over the exact same Gold Cup distance, which offers an interesting angle for viewers.

RSA Novices’ Chase – Marlborough’s preview and tips

The number of runners in a race often has a bearing on the tempo at which the race is run; and that in turn has a notable influence over which horses in the field might be best suited. Again, we’re looking towards the extremes here, though, having said that, with the continued shrinkage of field sizes comes a problem for those one-paced galloping types. Good to soft has a similar, if slightly more consistent for prior winners of one to three on the same ground, profile. Good to firm shows a similar increase from going maidens to those with a single verdict on the same official turf, then a regressive profile for winners of two and three. Deviating the other way, to soft, we see a fairly consistent picture for winners of one to three previous races on soft turf.

• A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one.
• Usain Bolt may have been unbeatable over 100m, but he’d never have won a top race over a mile.
• All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.
• The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses.
• If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott.
• Click the +BET button to add your selections and then, when you’re ready, hit ‘Bet Now’ to go to your chosen bookmaker’s site and place your bets.

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Buick has strong claims of landing a double with REBEL’S ROMANCE, the favourite for the Group 3L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate Glorious Stakes (4.10). The Irish are an integral part of the congregation worshiping at jump racing’s cathedral, and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it when that country unites behind an “Irish banker”. Some of Cheltenham’s greatest scenes have been provided by the likes of Istabraq, Like A Butterfly and Danoli, and our friends from across the water are throwing the kitchen sink behind Samcro. Lazuli (1.50) is a sprinter going places and should be able to land the Coral Charge after his brilliant victory in the Scurry Stakes last time.

Champion Chase – 2-0 to the Girls

His Grade I success at Naas last time was achieved with authority and we know that he can battle when needed. TOPOFTHEGAME fits the usual profile of winners in this trappy puzzle in that he is relatively lightly-raced and progressive. He has also shown form here as have 80 per cent of the winners during the past 10 years. The manner in which he travelled easily and then stayed on strongly at Sandown last time has the mark of a smart performer who is ahead of his mark. William Henry beat Topofthegameinto fourth place at Kempton in January but that fast track and a lack of pace in the race were against the selection and he should turn the tables. Mount Mews reverts to hurdles after some disappointing chase efforts and would have claims on his best form, were he to be reinvigorated by the smaller obstacles.

SPECIAL TIARA Bold front runner who capitalised on Douvan’s injury to win this race a year ago. Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun. ALTIOR Grand chaser who seeks his third consecutive win at the festival.

They’re off in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

Douvan has something to prove and has not been seen since sustaining a serious injury in this race a year ago. Min, who clocked a decent time at Leopardstown last time, could prove a bigger threat. You should also think about investigating some of the many free horse racing tips that float around online. These tipsters can provide a good way to identify opportunities, and to catch wind of likely strong performers before everyone else does. Of course, you need to be quick off the mark when you get your tips through, because the longer you wait, the worse your odds will get as more punters flock to back the tip.

• Today, horse racing betting is a £4.6 billion per year industry.
• The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise).
• His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone – even Willie M – how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser.
• Following quite a long spell of rain leading up to the meeting the going has now eased to Good to Soft.
• He has also shown form here as have 80 per cent of the winners during the past 10 years.
• The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here.
• The first handicap of the week and one that normally goes to a runner close to the head of the market.
• These represent the views of Racing Post experts and, generally speaking, the higher the rating, the better the horse’s chance.
• But he’s no bargain, especially if his jockey – presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option – allows others a head start.

Grade 1 Races

The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown. Not only is Kenny Alexander’s mare the reigning champ but she is also unbeaten in 14 career starts under Rules and, before that, a single point to point. The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there. Haut En Couleurs has plenty of untapped potential and could usurp the finishers from that race if standing up. The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it).

• Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup winner Unquestionable set the pace, with fellow Ballydoyle runner Henry Longfellow just in behind, while William Buick dropped Notable Speech out in the rear.
• His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time).
• In some ways that’s a shame, but the farrago of the 2019 running where the few who finished were legless was a pathetic last hurrah for the race of old.
• He also has a win and two places in the Fred Winter, from 11 starters.

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She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.

California Gem disappointed in fourth that afternoon but made amends in a Ripon maiden 12 days later, defeating Boom Boom Pow by three-quarters of a length. But the son of Vadamos came out on top that day, and has repeated the feat in one-mile contests on three of his six subsequent starts. After third placings at Pontefract and Newmarket in April, Eilean Dubh was back in business at Hamilton Park the following month and followed up in a big field at York a fortnight later.

The NAP was finally back in the winners enclosure yesterday so hopefully we can put a run of winners together now. We head to Beverley on Tuesday afternoon and GOLDEN WAR can open his account. This son of Churchill ran his best race to date when beaten a length over C&D last month and given that form has been well advertised since I think he can go one better here. He’ll need to improve again probably but he’s been gelded since and the hood goes on too which should sharpen him up. Sydney Street left his debut run behind to finish third at Ffos Las last time and will be the danger if building on that again. Rich King also looks to have a future and he should do better at some point too.

LH – Energumene jumps right which is a problem at Cheltenham; cannot have him at all. EdG is a fair price, and he might be Gentleman’s problem if he doesn’t allow that one to dominate from the front. Edwardstone probably just wins, after a good prep when a lot went wrong last time. Inthepocket is interesting up in trip; didn’t the run of the race at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Paul Nicholls has a very good record in handicap hurdles, too, in contrast to his Grade 1 performance in recent seasons. But the likes of Evan Williams and Charlie Longsdon (0 from 31, 0 places, between them), Noel Meade and Dr Richard Newland (0 from 27, 3 places, collectively) are probably best passed up. Naturally, then, the other 50 winners came from horses priced at 16/1 or shorter, the 381 such runners losing just 31 points at SP, and breaking even at BSP.

• It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting.
• Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity.
• Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out.
• Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.
• As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls.
• Promising start chasing home Masekela on debut but pitched into the deep end in Group company at Ascot in June and failed to fire again at Newmarket next time out; back to form beaten a length over C&D; gelded since so can improve again.
• Perhaps the most progressive is BLESS THE WINGS and he is a tentative choice.

They are living, breathing animals that we cherish and love. A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one. I love a lot of sports but horseracing has something extra special about it – so special, in fact, that I left Premier League football to present horseracing on ITV. All told, over the course of 406 bets advised during this free trial period, a profit of 138 points @ 22.79% ROI was made. This free service ran from March 2022 to August 2022 and was a resounding success, making a 138 point profit at 22.79% ROI over the course of 406 bets. Applying those negative filters would have left 375 qualifiers.

Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses Bolts Up Daily winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.

We now only have eight winners, from 291 runners, but an SP profit of 40 points. At BSP, for the reason highlighted above, it becomes a juicy 341 points. Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).

It’s fair to say that the Tizzard stable was in poor form at that moment and is firing much better now; if that was a factor in War Lord’s defeat, he might be over-priced. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Thunder Rock could be an ‘in running’ play if he’s travelling well in the first mile. Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he’s won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it’s only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days.